The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered by Chancellor John Healey on Wednesday 28 October 2026 — the first fiscal statement under Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government, which took office in July 2026. It is one of the most closely watched Budgets in years, arriving against a backdrop of tight fiscal headroom, rising borrowing costs, and a government that has explicitly refused to rule out tax rises while insisting it will stick to its fiscal rules.
This post separates what has actually been confirmed from what is currently speculation, and sets out sensible steps to take now rather than waiting for the Budget itself.
What's already confirmed — independent of the Budget
Several changes are locked in and will take effect regardless of what the Budget announces:
- VAT removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October 2026 — a cost-of-living measure announced by the Prime Minister separately from the Budget process.
- Landlord tax rise from April 2027 — property income tax rates for individual landlords are set to rise by two percentage points: basic rate rental profit taxed at 22%, higher rate at 42%, and additional rate at 47% in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
- Inheritance Tax on unused pensions from 6 April 2027 — already law following Royal Assent of the Finance Act 2026 in March 2026. We cover this in detail in a separate post.
- Cash ISA allowance reduced to £12,000 from April 2027, down from the current £20,000, for savers under 65.
None of these require confirmation on Budget day — they are already government policy and will happen unless something changes between now and their effective dates.
What the government has ruled out
Prime Minister Burnham has reiterated a commitment to honour the 2024 manifesto pledge not to raise the headline rates of Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT for the remainder of this Parliament. A Treasury spokesperson has also stated there are "no plans" for a flat 10% inheritance tax on all estates — a proposal that had circulated in press speculation but does not appear to be under serious consideration.
Distinguish confirmed policy from speculation. The tax press produces a huge volume of "Budget could include..." coverage every autumn, much of which does not materialise. Chancellor Healey has explicitly declined to comment on specific measures, saying that responding to speculation "will only fuel more speculation." Treat anything not listed under "already confirmed" above as genuinely uncertain until 28 October.
What's being speculated — areas to watch
Based on the pattern of commentary from major advisory firms and financial publishers, the following areas are considered live possibilities, though none are confirmed:
| Area | What's being discussed |
|---|---|
| Income Tax thresholds | Continued freeze beyond the current 2028 end date is considered plausible, given it raises revenue without technically raising rates |
| Pension tax relief | Reform of higher-rate pension tax relief has been a recurring pre-Budget rumour for several years; not yet confirmed for this Budget specifically |
| Capital Gains Tax | Further rate changes or a reduction in reliefs are being discussed, following the October 2024 rate increases |
| Property taxes | Beyond the confirmed landlord rate rise, wider council tax or property tax reform has been mentioned in some commentary |
| Fiscal devolution | Healey has signalled a Budget that "moves money and power out of Westminster" — the detail of what this means in practice is unclear |
| Gambling and machine games duty | An increase to machine games duty on slot machines has been reported as under consideration |
Why this Budget is under more pressure than usual
Fiscal headroom — the margin the government has against its own borrowing rules — has narrowed significantly since March 2026, with some estimates suggesting more than half of it has disappeared, partly attributed to the economic fallout from conflict in the Middle East earlier in the year. UK government borrowing costs reached their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis in early September 2026, driven by inflation concerns and pressure on public spending. This backdrop increases the likelihood that the Chancellor will need to find revenue from somewhere, even while avoiding headline rate rises on income, NI, and VAT — which points toward targeted measures on wealth, assets, allowances, and reliefs rather than broad-based tax increases.
What sole traders and directors should do now
- Don't restructure your affairs based on rumour. Advisory firms are unanimous on this point: significant financial decisions should not be made purely on Budget speculation. Wait for confirmed measures and their effective dates.
- Do review your position on things already confirmed. If you're a landlord, model the impact of the 2027/28 rate rise on your rental profit now. If you hold a meaningful pension pot, read our separate post on the incoming Inheritance Tax changes and consider whether your estate planning needs revisiting.
- Consider timing on discretionary transactions. If you were already planning a business disposal, a large pension contribution, or an ISA transfer in the near future, understand how a acting before versus after 28 October could matter — without assuming any particular outcome.
- Keep an eye on official channels, not headlines. The OBR publishes its full economic and fiscal outlook alongside the Budget speech on the day — the detail of who is affected and by how much sits in the accompanying documents, not the speech itself.
We'll cover the actual announcements. Once the Budget has been delivered on 28 October, we'll publish a follow-up post covering exactly what was announced and what it means in practice for sole traders and limited company directors — rather than speculating further here.
Want help understanding how the Budget affects you?
Once the announcements are confirmed, we'll help clients understand what's actually changed and what to do about it — get in touch ahead of 28 October to make sure you're on our radar.
Get in TouchThis article is for general information purposes and reflects the position as understood in September 2026. Budget speculation is not government policy and may not materialise. Always wait for official confirmation before making financial decisions, and speak to a qualified accountant for advice specific to your circumstances.